Lumeris acquires Forecast Health; accelerates impact for providers, payers & patients

Monday, April 24th 2017

Lumeris, headquartered in St. Louis and the 2015/2016 and 2017 Best in KLAS leader in Value-Based Care Managed Services, announced today that it has acquired Forecast Health, an advanced analytics and predictive modeling company. “Forecast Health’s success with open-source and SAS analytics, busines[...]

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Forecast Health, Mission Health Partners ACO Collaborate to Improve Community Health by Identifying High Risk, Impactable Patients

Friday, March 03rd 2017

Groundbreaking initiative uses socioeconomic data and goes beyond machine learning to precisely target resources where they can make the greatest impact. Durham and Asheville, NC – March 2, 2017. Forecast Health and Mission Health Partners today announced a partnership that will enable MHP to improv[...]

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North Carolina Hospital Association and Forecast Health Partner to Provide Hospitals More Accurate, Early Readmissions Data

Wednesday, February 15th 2017

Initiative Helps NC Hospitals to Predict and Prevent CMS Penalties   Durham and Cary, NC – February 15, 2017 Forecast Health and the North Carolina Hospital Association (NCHA) today announced a partnership to provide hospitals in the state early and highly accurate predictions of their readmiss[...]

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Webinar: Predicting Post-Acute Risk 30 Days Before Surgery

Wednesday, February 01st 2017 by Michael Cousins

The link below is the recording of a webinar we offered in partnership with World Congress.  In it, we discuss why predicting which patients are at high risk for adverse events isn't enough. Payers and providers need to know who is impactable, and what patient-specific steps can lower that risk.

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Asking the right question: Why Predictive Analytics Often Don’t Predict Anything Meaningful.

Monday, January 30th 2017 by Michael Cousins, PhD

This article appeared on LinkedIn Healthcare organizations collectively waste billions of dollars every year by focusing on the wrong problem to solve. This isn’t unique to healthcare, of course. A recent, must-read article in Harvard Business Review, “Are You Solving the Right Problems” by Thomas W[...]

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Issue One | Risk Scores & Impactability

Tuesday, December 06th 2016 by Sandy Shroyer

Why Risk Scores Without Impactability Scores Are Meaningless   In the era of value-based care, more providers and payers are using predictive analytics to identify high-risk patients and manage costs. There are many models, including open source approaches, that target patients who are likely t[...]

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Forecast Health Named Top 10 Startups to Watch by North Carolina Technology Association

Thursday, November 17th 2016

  Durham-based company is recognized for innovative approach to predicting and preventing health complications   Raleigh, N.C. -- Nov. 17, 2016. Forecast Health, an innovator in patient and population health, today announced it was named one of the top ten startups to watch at the NC Tech Award[...]

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Society of Actuaries Report: Forecast Health’s Predictive Models More Accurate than Industry Peers

Wednesday, October 26th 2016

Durham, NC – October 26, 2016. Forecast Health, an innovator in predictive analytics that improve patient and population health, today announced that a Society of Actuaries (SOA) study revealed that, compared to other vendors, the company’s predictive modeling approach was at least 9% more accurate[...]

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Forecast Health Outperforms Competitors on Predictive Accuracy

Wednesday, October 26th 2016

Executive Summary   The Society of Actuaries’ (SOA) recently published their study titled “Accuracy of Claims-Based Risk Scoring Models”.  It evaluated 11 vendors including Forecast Health (others included 3M, DxCG, Hopkins, Milliman, Optum, SCIO, and Truven, now an IBM company).  The last eval[...]

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Precision Medicine, EHRs and Public Health

Thursday, August 04th 2016 by Michael Cousins

Kerr, in his book from 1991, said that the term “schism” has been used by public health and medical officials over past decades to describe the increasing separation between the two fields. Fast forward to 2016 -- last week, an editorial in JAMA highlighted the disproportionate spending by NIH towar[...]

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The challenges of linking health insurer claims with electronic medical records

Thursday, February 04th 2016

RTI International reports their successes and failures to accomplish a seemingly simple task: link EHR and claims data. Their description of the technical as well as administrative burdens serve as a “heads-up” to others so they can move quickly to create enriched data sets. West, S; William G. John[...]

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How the C-Suite Can Identify and Prioritize Clinical and Competitive Opportunities

To improve population health, ACO executives need to first identify their highest clinical, financial, and competitive risks, and they need it across the entire care continuum, included post-acute care. They must know the answers to questions such as: Which of my members are likely to be the highest[...]

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Forecast Health Analytics Help Health Systems and ACOs Maximize Bundled Payments Profitability

Tuesday, April 12th 2016

Durham, NC – April 12, 2016. Forecast Health, an innovator in predictive analytics that improve patient and population health, today announced a solution to help health systems and ACOs manage risk and improve the profitability of bundled payments. Drawing on patient-level social determinants of hea[...]

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OPINION: Data Quality is Important, but Organizations Can't Be Deterred

Tuesday, March 29th 2016 by Michael Cousins

Want drama?  If so, read this report on data quality.  It says that organizations are “Mired in a dysfunctional cycle of data chaos” and that “today’s hype-fueled “big data” projects will fail unless data quality and governance are improved”.  They state that data must be fixed “before companies can[...]

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Forecast Health Provides Real-time Decision Support for Comprehensive Care Joint Replacement Episodes

Tuesday, March 22nd 2016 by Forecast Health

The Challenge Effective April 1, 2016, Health systems and providers in 67 metro statistical areas will be required to participate in the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ (CMS) bundled payment system model for Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CCJR).  Which means, health systems wil[...]

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Forecast Health Whitepaper: Increasing ACO Gainshare: A Path Forward

Friday, March 11th 2016 by Forecast Health

Risk-bearing entities such as Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs), Clinically Integrated Networks (CINs), and health plans save and/or earn money when readmission rates are reduced. For this reason, many organizations deploy case and care management operational programs in an attempt to reduce sta[...]

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Social Determinants of Health Webinar

Tuesday, March 08th 2016 by Forecast Health

[slideshare id=59091404&doc=forecasthealth-socialdeterminantsofhealthwebinar-02242016final-160304202558] [embed][...]

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Better Predictive Models Make Financial Sense

Friday, March 04th 2016 by Forecast Health

The predictive model your organization is using to target and manage readmissions is likely costing you money. Thirty Day readmission rates get a lot of attention in the Medicare Shared Savings Plan program. Reducing readmissions can improve financial results by 1) improving outcomes measures, which[...]

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Forecast Health White Paper: Social Determinants of Health

Thursday, February 18th 2016 by Forecast Health

According to recent research, clinical information from a care encounter contributes only about 10% of what drives population health. By contrast, social determinants of health (SDH), including health behaviors and physical environment, account for approximately 80%. Given the costs and complication[...]

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Michael Cousins Interview on Predictive Analytics on WTKF Radio Coastal Daybreak

Tuesday, February 02nd 2016 by Admin

Michael Cousins was recently interviewed on WTKF 107.1 FM about how a patient's home, transportation options and other social determinants of health can help North Carolina hospitals predict adverse events and achieve better clinical and financial outcomes.  Listen to the interview here.

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From Meaningful Use to Meaningful Outcomes: How Will Health Systems Navigate the Changing Road Map?


For several years, CMS pushed for health systems and providers to adopt electronic health records, as part of their Meaningful Use Program. A recent announcement at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference by Andy Slavitt, the acting administrator for CMS, indicated a shift from rewarding providers for[...]

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CMS Recommends Modeling on Social Determinants of Health

Thursday, January 28th 2016 by Norm Storwick, FSA, MAAA Director, Project Management

On Tuesday, CMS released a Guide to Preventing Readmissions among Racially and Ethnically Diverse Medicare Beneficiaries There’s much to be applauded here.  For example, the authors go beyond simply identifying the issues – they make actionable recommendations.  The key finding that racial and ethni[...]

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Comprehensive Care Joint Replacement: Ready or Not Here It Comes!

Friday, January 15th 2016 by Forecast Health

The Challenge Effective April 1, 2016, Health systems and providers in 67 metro statistical areas will be required to participate in the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ (CMS) bundled payment system model for Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CCJR). Ready or Not—Health systems and[...]

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Forecast HealthSM Presents at 15th Population Health Colloquium

Monday, June 15th 2015

Michael Cousins, Chief Analytics Officer, Forecast Health and Jason Burke, UNC Innovation Center, will be presenting on the topic “A Framework for the Next Generation of Advanced Analytics: Thoughts for Hospitals and Payers” during the 15th Population Health Colloquium, March 23rd-25th, 2015. This p[...]

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UNC Health Care and Forecast HealthSM Develop Predictive Analytics for Identifying Patients at Highest Risk of Readmissions

Monday, May 25th 2015

Durham, NC — May 25, 2015 — UNC Health Care and Forecast Health announce today the successful completion of the first phase of a collaboration designed to help patients receive better care. The collaboration has produced an analytical model that helps clinicians predict when patients are at high ris[...]

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UNC Hospital’s EVP & COO Dr. Brian Goldstein Joins Forecast HealthSM’s Board of Directors

Thursday, January 29th 2015

Durham, NC — Jan 29, 2015 — Forecast Health announced the appointment of Dr. Brian P. Goldstein, Executive Vice President (EVP) and Chief Operating Officer (COO) of University of North Carolina (UNC) Hospitals, to its Board of Directors. Dr. Goldstein has been the COO of UNC Health Care since 2010.[...]

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Forecast Health Expands Collaboration with SAS and Creates New Healthcare Predictive Analytics Solution for Hospitals

Monday, January 19th 2015

Durham, NC — Jan 19, 2015 — Forecast Health today announces they have expanded their relationship with SAS, the world’s leader in big data analytics software. They created a “Predictive Analytics Accelerator Kit” (PAAK) for hospitals that packages proprietary models, dashboards and data with predict[...]

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Forecast HealthSM Brings Actionable and Affordable Analytics Solutions to Hospital Systems

Thursday, December 25th 2014

Durham, North Carolina, November 25, 2014 - Forecast Health was launched today to bring actionable and affordable predictive analytics solutions to hospital systems. While there is a widespread recognition of the power of predictive analytics and big data, the benefits and applications of these have[...]

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Michael Ansel Joins Forecast HealthSM’s Board of Directors

Monday, December 22nd 2014

Durham, NC — December 22, 2014 — Forecast Health announced the appointment of Michael Ansel to its Board of Directors. Mr. Ansel is the SVP of Sales at ScriptSave (a subsidiary of MedImpact), a role he has had since 2012. Prior to that he held similar leadership roles at PharmMD, Matria (Alere), and[...]

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University of North Carolina Health Care and Forecast HealthSM Form a Strategic Agreement

Sunday, December 14th 2014

Durham, North Carolina, December 14, 2014 - Forecast Health, the company that brings actionable and affordable predictive analytics solutions to hospital systems, announces a collaborative agreement with University of North Carolina (UNC) Health Care. As part of the agreement announced today, UNC He[...]

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Use of medical insurance claims data to support population health initiatives

Friday, March 14th 2014 by Michael S. Cousins, PhD

Claims data have well-known shortcomings in population health management programs. This presentation shows data on claims lag, which isn’t as long as most people think. It also reviews published literature comparing the accuracy of EHR and claims at identifying conditions, qualities of care metrics,[...]

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Prioritized post-discharge phone outreach reduces hospital readmissions for high-risk patients

Saturday, December 22nd 2012

Too often we hear that rigorously assessing the effectiveness of a population health intervention is too difficult in a real-world setting. But if there’s a will, there’s a way! Even more important than the specific results — which was that telephonic case management reduces 60-day readmissions in s[...]

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Effects of non-adherence with prescription drugs among older adults

Tuesday, February 15th 2011

This article describes a retrospective, longitudinal study of adherence to prescription drugs conducted. It concludes that a year of non-adherence had the same correlation with ED use as making an older adult 1 year older.   Richard J. Butler, PhD; Taylor K. Davis, BA; William G. Johnson, PhD;[...]

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Principles for assessing disease management outcomes

Monday, November 01st 2004

In the early days of disease management, what has evolved to what we now called population health management, Michael worked with his fellow members of the committee to lay the foundation for assessing programmatic outcomes.   Fitzner, K et al. Diseas[...]

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Using predictive modeling to evaluate cost savings for a PPO population with multi-condition disease management programs

Monday, July 05th 2004 by Michael S. Cousins, PhD; Liu, Y

Ying and Michael used regression modeling to risk-adjust a non-intervened control group to assess the effectiveness of a multi-disease support program. The paper won a “Best Methodology” award from the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association (BCBSA), but with the benefit of hindsight, there were lots of[...]

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Predictive modeling for disease management risk stratification

Sunday, November 03rd 2002

Predictive modeling tools are used by disease and population management programs to risk-stratify members and can improve staff efficiency, reduce administrative costs, focus patient counseling and education efforts, and improve financial and health outcomes. Michael S. Cousins, PhD., Lisa M. Shickl[...]

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If a patient's risk arises from cost, the ACO can provide discount meds; if it comes from limited caregiver support, they can order a visiting nurse. Forecast Health provides the patient-specific insights organizations need to provide higher quality care.

Dr. Brian P. Goldstein Dr. Brian P. GoldsteinChief Health System Officer at University of Washington Medicine, Member of Forecast Health's Board of Directors


A successful predictive analytics program starts with an understanding of the opportunities in your population. Receive a custom analysis of your ACO claims data, including insights on leakage and provider-specific care coordination opportunities, available only from Forecast Health

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